AMA with Bitcoin engineer Jameson Lopp
So a bunch of physicist set out to analyse Bitcoin using the same methods that were used to evaluate if the new EU emerging markets in the post socialist era were stable and mature or likely to collapse. Some highlights from the article:
* An analysis was carried out for changes of the Bitcoin price in the period from 2012 to April 2018, posted in one-minute sequences. Rates of return were first in line. There is good quantitative evidence that in a mature market and in sufficiently short time scales their probability distributions are subject to inverse cubic law. […] “Later on, the rates of return fluctuated according to the inverse cubic law”.
* “In the case of Bitcoin, we detected multifractality in the functions of fluctuations in rates of return, particularly evident in the last six months of the examined period. This was of the same type as for regular, mature markets, such as the stock, dollar, oil or bond markets.”
* It turns out that for the Bitcoin market, the Hurst exponent approaches 0.5, which is characteristic of markets with a high reputation.
* The most important statistical parameters of the Bitcoin market indicate very clearly that for many months now it has met all the important criteria of financial maturity.
Wonder what Roubini, Schiller, Krugman and the other veryverysalty^(TM) bunch of nocoiners will say about this.
Full text: https://phys.org/news/2018-10-bitcoin-dollar.html
Edit: Technical paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.05916
I have to apologise, the waterfall drop is my fault, I thought I’d buy some BTC yesterday. You know how it goes. Please don’t worry though, I’m planning on selling my positions this afternoon so it will all go back up again.
Bear markets are for building! 🐻⚡ While the price is doing what it does, we continue to build the #LightningNetwork at the #LightningHackdayNYC in New York on October 27th/28th 2018. Speakers like Christian Decker, Matt Corallo and Peter Todd will take you down the rabbit hole.